Published 2026-05-14
Summary: A Roy Morgan poll reportedly shows One Nation at 32%, signalling a surge in opposition to mass immigration and positioning Pauline Hanson’s party as a leading force in Australian opinion. These figures align with media notes of growing support for One Nation in recent polling, though the exact date and cross-source consistency for the 32% figure are not confirmed in all sources provided.
What We Know
- Roy Morgan has previously reported high primary support for One Nation, with 14% in November—the highest in 27 years since July 1998, according to Roy Morgan data cited in the materials.
- In the same November Roy Morgan poll, ALP support was around 33% and Coalition around 27%, with Greens around 12.5% and Independents/Other Parties around 13.5%.
- Summary material notes that One Nation led as Australia’s largest party in an unspecified latest Roy Morgan survey, with a claim of 32% support and an association to opposition to mass immigration.
- Public reporting on the Roy Morgan poll has included analysis from Poll Bludger indicating Labor around 29.5%, Coalition about 24%, One Nation around 21.5%, and Greens around 13% in that source’s summary.
- All provided sources identify One Nation’s polling trajectory as rising relative to prior periods, contributing to a broader narrative about immigration policy as a political issue.
What’s Still Unclear
- Whether the 32% One Nation figure is confirmed across multiple sources or confined to a single report.
- The exact date of the Roy Morgan poll that yielded 32% and whether it corresponds to November data or another month.
- How the 32% figure translates to preferred party choice on a two-party or preferred voting basis beyond primary support.
- Whether other polls corroborate the 32% level or show different trajectories for One Nation.
- Context on regional variations or demographic breakdowns within the poll results.
Context
Polls can fluctuate and are one of several measures of public opinion on policy issues such as immigration. Roy Morgan and other polling outfits periodically publish primary support figures for major parties alongside two-party-preferred estimates. One Nation has historically hovered around lower to mid-range levels in national polls, with spikes in response to policy debates and campaign dynamics.
Why It Matters
Shifts in party support can influence public discourse, party fundraising, and candidate strategy. If there is a sustained rise in support for One Nation, it may shape the policy agenda and coalition considerations within political debates around immigration and related issues.
What to Watch Next
- Official release dates of Roy Morgan polling data to verify exact figures and dates.
- Cross-polling comparisons from other pollsters to assess consistency of One Nation’s support level.
- Any subsequent polling cycles that explore two-party-preferred measures alongside primary vote for One Nation.
- Coverage of how immigration policy discussions influence polling dynamics in coming months.
FAQ
Q: What does a 32% figure imply for One Nation’s standing in the polls?
A: Based on the available materials, it is described as a record-high or leading position in a Roy Morgan poll, but the exact corroboration across sources and the methodological details are not fully confirmed in the provided excerpts.
Q: Are these numbers consistent with other polls?
A: The provided sources include a different poll snapshot (Poll Bludger) showing different figures for One Nation (around 21.5% in that specific summary). Consistency across polls is not established in the available information.
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Source Transparency
- This article is based on a short preliminary brief and may not reflect the full details available in ongoing reporting.
- Source links are provided in the Sources section where available.
- A limited open-web check was used to clarify key details when possible; unclear items remain clearly marked.
Original brief: BREAKING:
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party become’s Australia’s largest party in an opinion poll for the first time ever as opposition to mass-immigration surges.
Her party stands at 32% in the latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan.
It’s the first time since the Second World…
Sources
- In November, support for One Nation increased to its highest since 1998 …
- The Poll Bludger
- Roy Morgan Poll: In November, support for One Nation increased to its …
- SA Newspoll shows Liberal wipeout likely; Victorian Morgan poll puts …
- Australia's 2026 Federal Election Outlook: One Nation Party Gains …